The reigning champions may have thought of it first, but they are now one of a crowd. In two hugely significant positions, prop and centre, there is talent to burn, much of it fresh to British and Irish eyes.Toulouse, the most successful European adventurers of them all, will surely make their presence felt once again, but the Basques of Biarritz, the Catalans of Perpignan and the Parisians of Stade Fran?s are every bit as obsessed with Heineken Cup glory now as the pioneering inaugural winners were in the middle years of the last decade. It is the quality of the undecorated legions that allows the strongest of the French sides to stand apart. Two of the last three finals have been Tricolore affairs and with seven high-class teams from Le Championnat contesting this tournament, there is every likelihood of something similar in Cardiff in seven months' time.Top-level imports from 15 countries have been included in the squads recently confirmed by the French candidates, but the power on the far side of the Channel is not purely the result of a glut of international-class foreigners; on average, the Welsh regions have a higher number of Test players per squad. And slim is out of town.Even the English are behind the eight-ball. It was predicted in these pages two and a half years ago that the more ambitious French clubs, awash with private money and secure in the luxurious surroundings of their publicly owned stadiums, would rule the roost for some time to come, and although Wasps somehow diddled Toulouse out of the main prize at Twickenham in 2004, there is precious little evidence to contradict that view. Only once has the stranglehold on the title been broken, by Ulster in the year of the English boycott.
France have never had fewer than three quarter-finalists since quarter-finals began in 1995-96 and have claimed at least two semi-final places in each of the last three seasons. If England's clubs are the only ones capable of holding them, the rest have two chances: slim and none. When Leinster met Leicester at Lansdowne Road in last season's quarter-final, only one side looked remotely match-hard. Needless to say, it was not the home team, who had not performed in anger for weeks. The way the Irish organise themselves, there is more chance of spotting Lord Lucan galloping down Grafton Street on Shergar than of seeing Brian O'Driscoll play anything resembling a full season's worth of rugby.France and England - loftily condemned as "rogue states" by those members of the International Rugby Board who fear and loathe the financial autonomy of independently financed professional clubs - are the ones who have it right Look at the statistics, if you require confirmation.
Teams win games by playing once a week, not by training themselves into oblivion. Few people seriously expect any of this to change between now and showpiece day at the Millennium Stadium in the third week of May.Worse still, there is no obvious prospect of the Irish provinces registering a meaningful impact on the business end of the tournament. Leinster, under the Australian coach Michael Cheika, and Munster, who have signed a couple of new centres in the big-name rugby league recruit Gary Connolly and the highly regarded South African Trevor Halstead to go alongside their more familiar Lions second-row pairing of Paul O'Connell and Donncha O'Callaghan, are capable of making the initial cut, but do not look remotely sharp enough to trouble the scorers come the spring.Indeed, there are mutterings in Ireland that the obsession with the fortunes of the national side - an obsession that has proved spectacularly fruitless thus far - has proved counter-productive. Wales have not produced a semi-finalist since Llanelli made it to the penultimate round five seasons ago, and could not even manage a quarter-finalist last time out. The Scots have contributed one team to the knock-out phase in eight attempts, which is one more than Italy, although Treviso generally make a nuisance of themselves in the group stage.
